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8 interviews · 14 quotes
In conversation
To really understand how economies behave, we must therefore understand the psychology of entrepreneurs and other key market participants. To learn more, I spoke with Professor Daniel Kahneman, who is widely regarded…
Elsewhere in the archive
In Noise: A Flaw in Human Judgement, Nobel Prize Winner, Daniel Kahneman together with co-authors Olivier Sibony, and Cass R. Sunstein show how noise helps produce errors in many fields, including medicine,…
In this interview I speak to Dr. Laurie Santos, one of the world’s foremost experts on happiness and human cognition. Laurie is the Chandrika and Ranjan Tandon Professor of Psychology and Head…
In this interview, I speak to Oxford professor Bent Flyvbjerg, dubbed “the world’s leading megaproject expert.” We discuss the findings from his recent book How Big Things Get Done, and the tools,…
In these exclusive interviews we speak to Jüri Ratas (Prime Minister of Estonia), Guy Verhofstadt (Former Prime Minister, Belgium & EU Chief Brexit Negotiator), Vicente Fox Quesada (Former President of Mexico), Noam…
On June 23, 2016 the people of the United Kingdom will be asked the single most important political question in modern history, “Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European…
In these exclusive interviews, we talk to Professor Neil Turok (Director of the Perimeter Institute for Theoretical Physics and member of Canada's Science, Technology and Innovation Council), Professor Gerry Gilmore (Professor of Experimental…
In this interview, I spoke to Nobel laureate Alvin Roth about his book Moral Economics and the repugnant transactions at its centre: exchanges willing parties want but others would ban. We discussed…
From the archive
Each person is trapped in their own world and assume that the rest of humanity sees the world the same way that they do. That assumption is incorrect. You see the world differently to me, and that's true for every situation in which we find ourselves. It's a side-effect of how we're built!
— Daniel KahnemanNobel Prize Winner in Economics for Behavioral Economics Research
The easiest way to understand noise is by thinking about measurements. Suppose you are measuring a line with a very fine ruler. You will expect some variability such that you will not get the same number every time when you measure. That variability is noise. In the mathematics of accuracy, the expression for total error is very simple and quite compelling. It is bias-squared plus noise-squared. Bias and noise are both contributing to error and in that equation, they do so on the same basis.
— Daniel KahnemanNobel Prize Winner in Economics for Behavioral Economics Research
If you want to understand the mainsprings of human-action, then understanding the remembering self is more important than the experiencing self.
— Daniel KahnemanNobel Prize Winner in Economics for Behavioral Economics Research
There is then a second order overconfidence where someone recognises a bubble but feels they will escape it when other people don't.
— Daniel KahnemanNobel Prize Winner in Economics for Behavioral Economics Research
There is a proverb in Hebrew that says that there used to be prophecy, but prophecy is now left for fools. I am not enthusiastic about forecasting anything.
— Daniel KahnemanNobel Prize Winner in Economics for Behavioral Economics Research
Many entrepreneurs are deluded about their odds of success, that evidence is very clear. This creates problems… Should a government subsidise entrepreneurs who greatly over-estimate their chances of success?
— Daniel KahnemanNobel Prize Winner in Economics for Behavioral Economics Research
I have argued, along with Nassim Taleb, that one of the sources of overconfidence in our ability to forecast the future is the great ease with which we find explanations for the past. That's a very significant mechanism that produces overconfidence.
— Daniel KahnemanNobel Prize Winner in Economics for Behavioral Economics Research
You cannot understand entrepreneurial activity without understanding optimism. Research has shown that optimism and overconfidence in individuals is directly linked to their engagement in entrepreneurial activity.
— Daniel KahnemanNobel Prize Winner in Economics for Behavioral Economics Research
There is a naïve form which doesn't recognise the bubble, and thinks that real-estate will go up forever. There is then a second order overconfidence where someone recognises a bubble but feels they will escape it when other people don't.
— Daniel KahnemanNobel Prize Winner in Economics for Behavioral Economics Research
Many entrepreneurs are deluded about their odds of success, that evidence is very clear. This creates problems… Should a government subsidise entrepreneurs who greatly over-estimate their chances of success?
— Daniel KahnemanNobel Prize Winner in Economics for Behavioral Economics Research
One of the sources of overconfidence in our ability to forecast the future is the great ease with which we find explanations for the past. That's a very significant mechanism that produces overconfidence.
— Daniel KahnemanNobel Prize Winner in Economics for Behavioral Economics Research
You cannot understand entrepreneurial activity without understanding optimism. Research has shown that optimism and overconfidence in individuals is directly linked to their engagement in entrepreneurial activity.
— Daniel KahnemanNobel Prize Winner in Economics for Behavioral Economics Research
Each person is trapped in their own world and assume that the rest of humanity sees the world the same way that they do. That assumption is incorrect. You see the world differently to me, and that's true for every situation in which we find ourselves.
— Daniel KahnemanNobel Prize Winner in Economics for Behavioral Economics Research
The easiest way to understand noise is by thinking about measurements. The variability of the error is noise – and that's important. In the mathematics of accuracy, the expression for total error is very simple and quite compelling. It is bias-squared plus noise-squared.
— Daniel KahnemanNobel Prize Winner in Economics for Behavioral Economics Research
