Results for “Ian Bremmer”

For the last 50, 100 even 200 years, almost all of the world's problems have been solved by a relatively small group of white men- and now we're bringing diversity to the challenge; we're opening out the future of our world to several billion people not just a few hundred million, and with that level of entrepreneurial thinking capacity I would see our civilisation growing exponentially, and that gives me hope.

When you're not in a geopolitical recession, political risk still matters, but it matters largely at a country level and primarily in emerging markets. But in a geopolitical recession, suddenly the biggest macro risks are by their nature political. And you focus less on growth and more on stability and resilience, and that's a problem because the free market model tells you 'don't focus on resilience and stability, focus first and foremost on growth and everything else will take care of itself'.

China will soon be the world's largest economy and is a state-capitalist nation meaning that the government controls the largest part of the economy. Unlike free markets, that means that finance is necessarily a critical tool of government. In China though, major corporations are a tool of government and so if we're moving to a world where China is going to be dominant economy, by definition finance will be their weapon.

We've entered a geopolitical recession, where the old US led world-order is unwinding. This isn't just a Trump issue- it's about Europe, BREXIT, about Russia undermining the US and the West, the rise of China and its alternative political and economic models. The geopolitical recession is exacerbated by the lack of anyone being willing or able to take (or replace) the American role- thus, we are left with an enormous amount of instability, and little resilience.

It's hard to predict risks, but easy to understand resilience, and frighteningly, we're living in a world that is less resilient than I've ever experienced in my lifetime.

In a geopolitical recession, suddenly the biggest macro risks are by their nature political. And you focus less on growth and more on stability and resilience, and that's a problem because the free market model tells you 'don't focus on resilience and stability, focus first and foremost on growth and everything else will take care of itself'.

The rise of populism, backlash against globalisation, and movement against open borders means that populations support the weaponisation of economies even though it doesn't work to their own advantage.

It's hard to predict risks, but easy to understand resilience, and frighteningly, we're living in a world that is less resilient than I've ever experienced in my lifetime.