Results for “Johan Bollen”

We do show that there is a predictive effect which is quite consistent over time! In our paper we report an 86% accuracy in predicting the up and down movements in the Dow Jones three or four days out. The question is how you turn that into a money making strategy. It could be- for example- that you lose ALL your money in that other 14%!

Unknown.

The measurement that we have is not derived from market or economic data. It is derived from the twitterverse- from all these individual users acting as social sensors. When I have a bad day, that has nothing to do with the market! But how I respond to that bad day may be a reflection of a general level of discomfort about how the economy is doing and so forth.

Unknown.

In science, one never shows causality. Causality is something philosophers are concerned with, not scientists. I cannot stress this in strong enough words- we have not shown a causal link between the public's mood state as we measured it from twitter data feeds, and the market.

Unknown.

I think behavioural economics has now become an accepted part of the thinking on markets- it's generally accepted that people's decision making is heavily influenced by emotional state and various other behavioural biases in comparison to previous models that assumed rational decision making in the markets. The markets and individual investors are driven by what you could call 'irrational considerations' and emotions play an important role in that.

Unknown.

Twitter as a service is very oriented towards people providing short, succinct and relatively immediate 'in the moment' updates on what they're interested in and how they feel- and at a very large scale. At the moment we have around 250 million twitter users! We felt it was the ideal environment for us to test our hypotheses that we could, in fact, gauge the public's mood state from this type of data- and use that to study and even predict socioeconomic phenomenon of which the market is just one.

Unknown.

When I have a bad day, that has nothing to do with the market! But how I respond to that bad day may be a reflection of a general level of discomfort about how the economy is doing and so forth. It's an out-of-bounds signal. In that sense, it's pretty unique!

Unknown.

In our paper we report an 86% accuracy in predicting the up and down movements in the Dow Jones three or four days out. The question is how you turn that into a money making strategy. It could be- for example- that you lose ALL your money in that other 14%!

Unknown.

I think behavioural economics has now become an accepted part of the thinking on markets- it's generally accepted that people's decision making is heavily influenced by emotional state and various other behavioural biases in comparison to previous models that assumed rational decision making in the markets.

Unknown.

In science, one never shows causality. Causality is something philosophers are concerned with, not scientists. I cannot stress this in strong enough words- we have not shown a causal link between the public's mood state as we measured it from twitter data feeds, and the market.

Unknown.