Results for “Mark Spitznagel”

We don't accept basis risk we don't accept counterparty risk- we don't want any fuzziness around what our payout is going to be conditional on the realising of this systematic left tail 'black swan' event.

Hedge Fund Manager & Author of "The Black Swan" Risk Management

We have a much more connected marketplace. We have had, what I reckon to be an extremely overvalued stock market since 2000. When you have that situation, you are prone to very sudden negative revaluations.

Hedge Fund Manager & Author of "The Black Swan" Risk Management

I made the analogy of earthquake faults- when they get aligned, they either all move, or they don't move- we also have this diversity of micro fault-lines that fail, and I think that's a huge problem.

Hedge Fund Manager & Author of "The Black Swan" Risk Management

I want to either hit a homerun or walk or even strike out. This means I fail far more often than I succeed. But the important point is that what I lose when I fail is trivial, epsilon compared to what I make when I succeed.

Hedge Fund Manager & Author of "The Black Swan" Risk Management

We are living through a profound era where speculative failure is simply not an option, and is fought tooth and nail by the government. This is a trap. Here I am the fool looking to fail frequently.

Hedge Fund Manager & Author of "The Black Swan" Risk Management

We know from the availability heuristic that people overestimate the likelihood of an event based on their ability to envision it—the risk of plane crash versus car crash is the best example of this. Holding that big check is easy to conjure up, but rare, deep stock market corrections not so much most of the time.

Hedge Fund Manager & Author of "The Black Swan" Risk Management

I made the analogy of earthquake faults- when they get aligned, they either all move, or they don't move- we also have this diversity of micro fault-lines that fail, and I think that's a huge problem.

Hedge Fund Manager & Author of "The Black Swan" Risk Management

Here I am the fool looking to fail frequently. I want to either hit a homerun or walk or even strike out. This means I fail far more often than I succeed. But the important point is that what I lose when I fail is trivial, epsilon compared to what I make when I succeed.

Hedge Fund Manager & Author of "The Black Swan" Risk Management

We have a much more connected marketplace. We have had, what I reckon to be an extremely overvalued stock market since 2000. When you have that situation, you are prone to very sudden negative revaluations.

Hedge Fund Manager & Author of "The Black Swan" Risk Management

People like to compare such rare payoffs to lottery tickets. This is way off. We know from the availability heuristic that people overestimate the likelihood of an event based on their ability to envision it—the risk of plane crash versus car crash is the best example of this.

Hedge Fund Manager & Author of "The Black Swan" Risk Management