There is then a second order overconfidence where someone recognises a bubble but feels they will escape it when other people don't.

It feels to us that the festival is owned by the people, and me and my Dad are kind-of custodians of it. In that sense, it's a bit like a sailing ship… me and my Dad drive it, but the ship is made of a few hundred people.

The opacity is the difference between profit and loss. If every airline seat that could be sold- were sold at the lowest possible price, the industry would lose billions. If every airline seat that could be sold- were sold at the highest possible price… It would make billions.

Consider a car with malfunctioning brakes; it's unsafe to let it on the street, as it could cause harm. You'd need to confine it, but you wouldn't punish it or moralize its malfunction. Instead, you'd seek to understand why its brakes failed.

I start by asking: How will our customers benefit from this acquisition? I tend to shy away from companies that don't share a similar cultural ethos. Even if an acquisition seems financially sound, if there's a stark cultural mismatch, I'd usually reconsider.