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When Do Leaders Actually Matter? A Conversation with Jared Diamond on Discretion, Timing and the Hamlet Test

In this interview, I spoke to Professor Jared Diamond, Pulitzer Prize-winning author of Guns, Germs, and Steel, about when individual leaders genuinely change outcomes. We discussed discretion, timing, his Hamlet Test for irreplaceability, assassination as a…

Vikas Shah 24 min read

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Three thousand moments. Three picked at random.

“Milton Friedman had a postulate about this. He got a Nobel Prize and all the rest of it, very fancy. But as soon as you interrogate this postulate, it's manifestly rubbish. The postulate was that capital would move into a region hit by an adverse shock. So, Sheffield's steel industry collapses. 'Oh well,' says Milton Friedman, 'that means wages are cheaper, property is cheaper, and so capital will move in.' Which sounds fine until you think about it for more than two minutes.”
— Paul Collier Economist specializing in poverty, conflict, and development in Africa
“The 'compare and despair' generation is constantly bombarded with unrealistic portrayals of success, leading everyone to feel inadequate, regardless of their achievements. We all have flaws and recognize our weaknesses, and there will always be someone who seems better in some way. Thus, no one is ever fully satisfied.”
— Bruce Hood Psychologist known for research on child development and magical thinking in children
“The system incentivised the promotion of individuals who could read the room — or the Hippodrome.”
— Anthony Kaldellis

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  1. 01 Business & Economics A Conversation with Jesper Kouthoofd, Founder of Teenage Engineering, on Design, Play and Why Every Product Is an Illusion 363 interviews
  2. 02 Culture, Society, Sports & Arts A Conversation with Jesper Kouthoofd, Founder of Teenage Engineering, on Design, Play and Why Every Product Is an Illusion 237 interviews
  3. 03 Politics & Policy From the Minefields of Kuwait to Sandhurst: A Conversation with Major General Arthur Denaro on War, Leadership and Peace 170 interviews
  4. 04 Science & Technology We Are Not Alone: A Conversation with Jonathan Caplan KC on the Evidence for UAPs, Non-Human Intelligence and Why It Was Never Disclosed 136 interviews
  5. 05 Health & Medicine The Continuum of Mind: A Conversation with Professor Michael Levin on Cognition, Bioelectricity and the Future of Being 74 interviews
  6. 06 Nobel Laureates Markets, Morals and the Road Ahead: A Conversation with Nobel Laureate Professor Alvin Roth 21 interviews

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