Hypothetical News: “…Traders around the world today began to sell all of the USA’s military assets after a devastating terrorist attack removed confidence in the nation’s ability to protect itself. In other news, a patient who may become terminally ill in the next few weeks has had all treatment ceased…
Guest article written for AllAboutAlpha.com – the official publication of the Chartered Alternative Investment Analyst (CAIA) Association originally posted at: http://allaboutalpha.com/blog/2011/06/27/the-risks-and-opportunities-of-unforeseen-black-swan-market-events/ The precipitous market-collapse which began the 2007 financial crisis was considered to be a ‘once in a thousand year’ event. Similar ‘not in our lifetime’ rarity was also assigned…
In a recent paper entitled, “How to Detect an Asset Bubble” Jarrow, Kchia and Protter state that, “…After the 2007 credit crisis, Financial bubbles have once again emerged as a topic of current concern. An open problem is to determine in real time whether or not a given asset’s price…