Hypothetical News: “…Traders around the world today began to sell all of the USA’s military assets after a devastating terrorist attack removed confidence in the nation’s ability to protect itself. In other news, a patient who may become terminally ill in the next few weeks has had all treatment ceased…
Guest article written for AllAboutAlpha.com – the official publication of the Chartered Alternative Investment Analyst (CAIA) Association originally posted at: http://allaboutalpha.com/blog/2011/06/27/the-risks-and-opportunities-of-unforeseen-black-swan-market-events/ The precipitous market-collapse which began the 2007 financial crisis was considered to be a ‘once in a thousand year’ event. Similar ‘not in our lifetime’ rarity was also assigned…
In a recent paper entitled, “How to Detect an Asset Bubble” Jarrow, Kchia and Protter state that, “…After the 2007 credit crisis, Financial bubbles have once again emerged as a topic of current concern. An open problem is to determine in real time whether or not a given asset’s price…
In 2010, The Economist reported the story of Narsama Anthaiah who’s “…sobbing can be heard throughout her village, Nagaram, in the Indian state of Andhra Pradesh (AP).” They continue to explain, “When visitors from Hyderabad, the state capital, some 80km (50 miles) away, cross the threshold of her bare little…
The nature of the global conflict is changing. Until the apocalyptic end of World War II, we had seen a ‘textbook’ approach to war, with ever-increasing competition in the dimensions of firepower, manpower and speed contributing to the success of any given belligerent. Since then, war has moved into its…
Regardless of whether one agrees with the rationale behind Wikileaks‘ release of thousands of diplomatic cables, one certainty is that their appearance has opened a necessary debate on moral hazard’s in our own democracy. Manifesting Moral Hazard Information Asymmetry is an important concept, usually noted in transactional situations, where one…
The Guardian, along with many major news agencies around the world have been reporting the tragic story of how, “South African police chiefs have called for residents of a township near Cape Town to help track down the “useless scoundrels” who on Saturday killed a bride on honeymoon with her…
At a very fundamental level, war is about defending against a perceived or actual threat. Such aggressions have been frequently used throughout history to defend ideas, ideologies and territories- but more recently, economies. Unlike any other defence environment, the theatre of nuclear war exists in a state of near-permanent checkmate. …
Hypothetical News, 2013 “Deep in a London slum, 25 people were arrested by the authorities today for not paying their air-bill. A. Person, spokesman for air-aid said, ‘the government must act on this- it is ridiculous that we have a society where some people can afford air, and some people…
In my article of September 01st 2010 “Thinking Ourselves Into Another Recession” I discussed how psychology plays a critical role in the well-being of an economy. Using the paradigm of eating disorders, we discussed how: “…When we talk of economic confidence, business confidence, or even confidence in global markets, we…