From 600+ conversations with the world’s leading thinkers.
We've entered a geopolitical recession, where the old US led world-order is unwinding. This isn't just a Trump issue- it's about Europe, BREXIT, about Russia undermining the US and the West, the rise of China and its alternative political and economic models. The geopolitical recession is exacerbated by the lack of anyone being willing or able to take (or replace) the American role- thus, we are left with an enormous amount of instability, and little resilience.
When social distrust mounts- when people feel like the game is rigged against them- they are especially vulnerable to demagogues who come along and want them to channel their rage, anxiety and distrust toward scapegoats.
We've built two great contagion machines. Firstly, international travel which has enabled vast numbers of people to fly over great distances. Secondly, the internet – and in particular, the way the internet has evolved... we saw the rapid growth of clickbait, sensationalist content, and the internet became a machine for disseminating contagious ideas.
The economy is in the doldrums and likely to worsen. The UK economy has performed worse than most Euro Zone countries, and the calls for a change, of course, are becoming pretty loud. The government's economic strategy is clearly in disarray.
The old diplomatic model where only representatives of states have a formal role cannot work in today's world. We need open, democratic platforms that allow everyone to participate – it could be a young activist or a business leader, it could be a scientist or an indigenous leader.
Why don't we start with a fundamental step – ceasing to fund our own downfall? For years, we held onto the belief that welcoming China into the international order would prompt them to abide by established rules, liberalize their economy, and make their governance more democratic.
Every gun that is made, every warship launched, every rocket fired signifies in the final sense, a theft from those who hunger and are not fed, those who are cold and are not clothed.
Islamism is an ideology that is imported from Europe in the 1930s onwards. It was fascism and communism that were imported by Qutb, who became the ideologue of modern day Islamism. He wrote a book called 'milestones' – equivalent (and sharing many similarities) to Das Kapital or Mein Kampf.
I have never seen a good case for protectionism, but I can see a case for slowing down trade integration because it can be highly disruptive to domestic firms, markets and people's income in the short-run.
The clearest thing about being a diplomat is the knowledge that you aren't in control. The problems you're dealing with are huge – with multiple players and facets. Nobody involved in diplomacy can kid themselves that they are in charge, or in control.
There is nothing, however, in standard theories of money that requires transactions to be anonymous from tax- or law-enforcement authorities. And yet there is a significant body of evidence that a large percentage of currency in most countries, generally well over 50%, is used precisely to hide transactions.
These policies are, in the long term, very dangerous for productivity, growth, entrepreneurial spirit and wealth generation and will create further issues within the developed economies.