From 600+ conversations with the world’s leading thinkers.
When I came back, it didn't take me and my brother long to see that this was a failing business. It had been making the same product since the 1930s. The business was dying.
The standard models were formulated through a process that started well before computers were in place, and I would say it's undergone a certain lock-in. Once you start going down that path, it's hard to break out of it to another path. As a result, economics is stuck.
Last week I was asked to help the NHS get video-consultations up and running in every GP practice in the country, in one week.
When you innovate under constraints like this, you go to a different level- that's the opportunity India provides.
Opportunities generally arise from landscape change. But entrepreneurial ideas can come from anywhere. They can come from recognizing where the pain points, the bottlenecks, and the inefficiencies are. They can come from late-night conversations with friends, or from random eureka moments.
Part of the reason I'm arguing the time is right is because unlike back in the 60s when these ideas about complexity economics were first floated by people like Herbert Simon, we now have all the tools to do it. Computers are a billion times more powerful, the data is vastly better, our understanding of psychology is vastly better, we know a lot more about how to program models like this.
Technologies are emerging and moving so fast, that it's very hard to build accountability mechanisms; not least because technologies can become ubiquitous before we understand them.
Consider the adoption rates of various technologies: for telephone and electricity, it took approximately 15 years to jump from a 50% to 75% market share. With the advent of the internet and computers, that span dropped to 10 years. Television achieved this in only 5 years. But smartphones? They shattered all records with a mere 3-year period.
While many were focused on selling routers and switches, I envisioned a more transformative goal: changing the way the world works, learns, lives, and plays via the internet... we must sell outcomes, driven by technology, rather than just selling products.
BitTorrent is the first time in history that people found a way to make decentralised infrastructure work better and more efficiently than centralised. Transferring files through BitTorrent is 100-1000% faster than centralised infrastructure.
It was one of those typical examples of people combining different ideas from different fields and finding magic at that intersection.
A model that's really strong at mathematical reasoning is likely to be strong at coding. And a model that's excellent at both math and code is often very good at analysing the nuts and bolts of legal reasoning as well. The third and deepest reason this matters is the ability to bridge different levels of abstraction. All of these domains involve multiple layers of abstraction, and the ability to move fluidly between those layers is likely to be extremely commercially valuable.