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We measure these flows entirely based on data filed by governments at the World Bank and the IMF. We apply two very established economic models. One is the World Bank's residual method, and the other is the IMF Direction of Trade statistical approach. These models have been used by economists for decades but we were the first group to apply these models to all developing countries.
For four decades, real wages for Americans haven't experienced any significant growth. Prior to the pandemic, it was reported by the Brookings Institute that 53 million Americans were trapped in low wage jobs, where their earnings failed to adequately cover their needs.
We have to understand that the world has been inefficient for decades, producing too much, using too much and throwing away too much. We waste 75% of the energy we produce, half the food we produce and half of our natural resources.
One thing that really helped us was NOT following the IMF prescription, and hence I think the fact that we insisted on having growth (alongside stability) was something that made for a big change in Brazil.
Running a business is a challenging job, but until relatively recently, that job was simplified to the extent that you had one target – make as much money as you can for the shareholders. Now, you have to balance a multitude of targets which makes it much more challenging.
Today away from monetary policy, global factors drive inflation, and for tangible goods emerging market drivers are key. We note commodity consumption per unit of GDP explodes as per capita income rises from $3000/yr into the $5000 to $15000 bracket.
Whether it's in economics, politics, or wider society, there's a debate about capitalism versus socialism; but I don't really think that's what's happening. If you look at the populist undercurrents around the world- it's really about walls & bridges. When there are big changes in the economy – like globalisation or technological change, the simple thing to tell voters is, 'we'll build a wall to protect you against those changes…' what you really need however, is bridges.
To be a billionaire in America today is less a matter of merit than it is a matter of being at the right place at the right time, and being a beneficiary of a set of rules designed to benefit billionaires.
The notion of 'alternative' as an asset class sits badly with me because for me, saying hedge-funds – as an example – are an asset class is akin to comparing mutual-funds to being an asset class. The sheer diversity within these groups makes it difficult to define them as a class in their own right, given the complete lack of commonalities across the board.
It's differences in tastes and preferences, resources and technology together with ways of thinking (manifesting in managerial and design differences) which are the reasons countries benefit when they trade with each other in goods, services, finance and labour.
From a financial standpoint, it was roughly 12 to 13 years before I felt secure enough to draw a consistent annual salary. Up until that point, there was always an undercurrent of uncertainty. It wasn't until 12 to 13 years in that I felt we had the financial resilience to withstand these challenges.
China for example, aims to increase their buying by 400,000 barrels a day in the last quarter of 2012, and will be adding over 750,000 barrels of new refining capacity. That economic engine is still turning, but what people want is to be able to price that trade-flow.