From 600+ conversations with the world’s leading thinkers.
To my mind, the essence of capitalism is that decentralised economic decisions can be taken in firms that compete against each other in structured markets, and do so under strong incentives for growth and the increase of productivity. It's the only system we've ever hit-on that appears to be capable of driving mass prosperity.
We do show that there is a predictive effect which is quite consistent over time! In our paper we report an 86% accuracy in predicting the up and down movements in the Dow Jones three or four days out. The question is how you turn that into a money making strategy. It could be- for example- that you lose ALL your money in that other 14%!
I don't have to outrun the Tiger, I just have to outrun you. When you look at many of the financial centres such as The City of London, Wall St, and their counterparts, they think of things in Economic terms.
The EU needs reform. Countries have transferred jurisdiction over legislations to a centre that makes decisions in somewhat of a vacuum, featuring a European Parliament that cannot itself initiate legislation. We have a paradox therefore where national parliaments give certain powers to the centre, without being compensated through the creation of an essential federal sovereignty.
Another important argument for maintaining the status quo is that eliminating a core symbol of the monetary regime could disrupt common social conventions for using money, possibly in unexpected ways.
We've entered a geopolitical recession, where the old US led world-order is unwinding. This isn't just a Trump issue- it's about Europe, BREXIT, about Russia undermining the US and the West, the rise of China and its alternative political and economic models. The geopolitical recession is exacerbated by the lack of anyone being willing or able to take (or replace) the American role- thus, we are left with an enormous amount of instability, and little resilience.
When you look at the numbers, over half the sub-Saharan African population is under 18 years old, versus Latin America, where over half the population is under 25 years old and Asia, where it is under 35 years old. In short, these EM populations are young, expansive and dynamic, not like the stable, more risk-averse populations of the world's developed economies.
If corporate profits are high, it suggests performance has been terrific… you can't then complain that governance is broken! You can't have it both ways…. if corporate governance was better, profits would be even higher!
Classic economic theory simply will not allow governments and regulatory bodies to deal with bubbles effectively, as they will grow to tremendous sizes immensely fast, meaning that the amount of support needed when they burst vastly exceeds the value of most economies.
Competition is great for consumers, but nothing destroys enterprise value faster than intense competition. To succeed in commerce, you need a great operating team focused on the nitty gritty details of the business.
Today, we have the worst of the 1970s, with multiple different types of negative supply shocks and not just one.
From about 2000, Africa has come into an economic renaissance: Between 2000 and 2008, we saw a marked improvement in macro-economic stability, with inflation falling and interest rates hitting single digits even in areas like Nigeria. We have seen robust GDP growth, 17% in Angola and 5.5% in Ghana and Nigeria in 2008 for example, combined with increases in FDI, which was up 25% year on year between 2000 and 2005.