From 600+ conversations with the world’s leading thinkers.
We compute some level of default and losses because of those defaults- and perform IRR calculations to create yields and then we haircut it some more because, in truth, we have no idea!
Today away from monetary policy, global factors drive inflation, and for tangible goods emerging market drivers are key. We note commodity consumption per unit of GDP explodes as per capita income rises from $3000/yr into the $5000 to $15000 bracket.
The point of maximum pessimism is the ultimate time to buy a stock because at this point, all the sellers are gone… and only buyers remain. How do you determine this point? Even Uncle John said it's impossible…. You never know until it has passed!
We have to get out of this 'tax to spend' mentality and think about using resources to create investment funds that support local businesses, while also expecting to get something back as those businesses appreciate. Those are very different mentalities.
This is not just about the elephant- it's about there being different types of elephants. Looking at the market in simplistic distribution perspectives misses the true effect, threat and risk of large movements and upcoming changes.
There are three devils that inhibit economic growth. The first is that the government takes up too much of the economy. The second is that taxes take too much out of the economy. And the third is that there's too much regulation.
I typically think impact investing, on the whole, can generate better risk-adjusted yields than the alternatives.
To my mind, the essence of capitalism is that decentralised economic decisions can be taken in firms that compete against each other in structured markets, and do so under strong incentives for growth and the increase of productivity. It's the only system we've ever hit-on that appears to be capable of driving mass prosperity.
I'm constantly bemused when I hear about some amazing energy or agricultural company that is for profit, but works with low-income people and a non-profit leader says, 'you know Jacqueline, charging people who are poor is immoral…' – you know what else is immoral? 700 million people who have no electricity.
With 650 million global fans, MMA has the third biggest worldwide fanbase (after soccer and basketball). However, those MMA fans are very under-served and very under-monetized.
I have not been an urban investor in re-gentrification, which tries to change the character of a community and, candidly, is very speculative. Instead I look at revitalisation, which constitutes investing in existing densely populated and ethnically diverse communities and delivering the goods and services that are sought after but not provided.
Monetary support for development in itself will not accelerate growth in the real economy to artificial or unsustainable levels. It is how the finance is used – or misused.